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Posts Tagged ‘Eastleigh by-election’

>GP – RN: Rochester: of causes and effects

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 22/11/2014

From: Greg Lance-Watkins (Greg_L-W)
At: Greg_L-W@BTconnect.com

 

>GP – RN: Rochester: of causes and effects

“The practice of sport is a human right!. Every individual must have the possibility of practicing sport, without discrimination of any kind and in the Olympic spirit, which requires mutual understanding with a spirit of friendship, solidarity and fair play.” –Olympic Charter
There are times when it is reasonable to believe ‘Sport’ is not so much a right but an obligation by diktat!
However boring you may find sport: there are many who derive great vicarious pleasure from watching it – Particularly Women’s Beach Volleyball & Women’s Gymnastics; some even enjoy being a part of a baying mob at football games!

Hi,

EUReferendum

Saturday 22 November 2014

000a Out-021 EU.jpg

A weary few days and some miracle-working by North Jr and friends has got us back online (with the forum and other tweaks to follow when we can), after a series of massive DDOS attacks. So focussed and relentless were the attacks that we conclude that they were directed specifically at EUReferendum, with a view to taking us out of circulation.

Against that and the added stress of extremely arduous day jobbing, the election of a second-rate politician seemed very minor. And, in the grander scheme of things, it was indeed a minor event. In six months, it will be distant memory, as indeed will Reckless the Repatriater, who will have faded into the obscurity he justly deserves.

Of current interest, though, is the fallout, which has the Daily Mail reporting that Conservative MPs are calling for David Cameron to toughen his stance on the EU.

The newspaper is asserting that the way to “take the legs from under Farage” is for the prime minister to campaign for an “out” vote. That is an obvious line to take except that it suffers the obvious flaw. Those unwilling to believe Mr Cameron’s promise for a referendum are just as likely to disbelieve any commitment to fight against EU membership.

What might deal a death blow to Farage’s ambitions, however, is the double whammy of explaining to the voting public that his party has no idea of how to manage our departure from the EU (and no capability in that respect) while simultaneously demonstrating that a workable plan does exist and can be implemented quickly and easily, to the very great advantage of the UK.

This, in my view, is what is needed to transform the debate. Having long accepted the need to leave the EU – for any number of reasons – I no longer wish to endure the tedium of the continuous tales of woe on how badly we are treated by the Barons of Brussels.

Rather, I am in the market for some “sunlit uplands”, the very thing Mr Farage and his dysfunctional acolytes have no means of bringing us. His shambolic party is set to deliver the only thing of which Ukip is capable –  its own brand of discordant negativity. It will never achieve anything but chaos and disruption.

In order to defeat Ukip, what the Conservatives need to realise is you don’t fight a negative with a negative. The only thing that cancels out a negative is a positive. All Farage’s party can do is tell us how bad it is inside the EU. The Conservatives need to tell us how good it is on the outside.

That, in fact, is quite difficult to do. Any fool can tell us that we need to leave – very few people can come of with a credible, structured plan for making it happen. And as this is a task quite beyond the capabilities of Ukip, and neither Labour nor the Lib-Dems have any intentions of filling the void, this leaves the field wide open to the Conservatives.

This is why the next few days and weeks are going to be increasingly interesting. Gradually, there is a realisation emerging that the need to get out of the EU is only a tiny part of the equation – the easy bit that even the febrile minds of Ukip supporters can grasp. It is how we get out that matters more. Unless a safe exit can be assured, it is never going to happen.

Once it is evident that the feat can be done, though, it is much more likely that it will then happen. Thus, the realisation that we need an exit plan may be one of the most enduring effects of this period. Knowledgeable commentators will then see the pressure to withdraw as a child of the time. Others will try to link unrelated events, and argue cause and effect.

What we are seeing, though, are effects with common causes. Some have taken the cul-de-sac towards Ukip while the more enlightened are looking for the way to the sunlit uplands. The reasons for those actions are deep-rooted and do not lie in recent events. But the outcome is not to be denied – it was going to happen sooner of later. And even if later, that is better than not at all.

Richard North
22/11/2014

I am inclined to totally agree with this post of Richard’s which concurs with all that I have learned over many years and in very many countries around the world – any fool can knock the status quo and find support amongst the struggling lower middle classes (used to be working class until the invention of Mr. Biro replaced the pick and the shovel of yester year for many!), and also the support of the failed amongst the working classes (those not gainfully employed or who have outbred their capacity for self support!).

 

Indeed Nigel Farage’s clique and its claque have tapped into this very successfully as did Alex Salmond in Scotland, Francisco Franco in Spain, Adolf Hitler in Germany and many others in their respective times and countries.

You will note all made an issue of simplistic denigration of the existing Governance, highlighted problems and built on them without workable remedies and found a sector of the community to blame be that the Jews in Nazi Germany, the bankers for the Labour party and EU or immigrants for Farage’s ill informed supporters.

NONE of the examples I have quoted had any exampes of HOW to move forward being far too rooted in destructive nihilism as they tried to tear down structures that showed how small was their intellectual structure and vision rather than building an intellectual power base that rose above the present situation, showing why the alternative they offered was better and more importantly how to achieve their promised ‘Nirvana’.

Allthough it seems Richard North feels constrained by modesty (not too typical of him 😉 – I note he fails to put forward his methodology for obtaining those sunny uplands) may I therefore suggest all who read this will find a detailed study of >FleXcit< of great value – you will find a link to >FleXcit< in the right sidebar of this web site.

I regret it would seem that in Britain The Tories, divorced as they would seem to be from either the ethics or the patriotism they formwerly represented, are the only party that shows ANY possibility of moving forward all be it haltingly as they recognise increasingly before a referendum AS PROMISE, unlike relative to the New EU Constitution which morphed into the name change to The Lisbon Treaty!

As I started to say – as they start to realise that the EU Treaties are now tablets of stone that can not be viably improved due to the requirement for unanimity of opinion amongst approaching 30 very different regions (formerly Nation States) who are both its vassals and its members! SDome seeking to reduce the subsidies they fund the scam with whilst the majority seek to survive on the malign handouts generated by those self same subsidies.

The EU is like a family with over 20 children where regardless of the needs and incomes of the parents and few viable working members  has surrende3red control of how much pocket money the majority of the least responsible children get is defined by those very children that would benefit – all too like the Labour Party economic illiteracy we saw in the 13 unlucky years of their catastrophic rule, where the Governance was controlled by a collection of criminal scoundrels seeking their own enrichment and aggrandisement all be it by bankrupting the country and undeniable war crimes and crimes against humanity!

Regards,
Greg_L-W.

http://GregLanceWatkins.com

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The EASTLEIGH By-Election Results & Thoughts

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 02/03/2013

The EASTLEIGH By-Election Results & Thoughts
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The EASTLEIGH By-Election Results & Thoughts, Particularly on the UKIP Protest Vote!!

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Hi,

Having had better things to do today and having listened in detail to election details until 03:00hrs. as the results came in and subsequently there was little of note to post beyond the facts I posted contemporaneously with the election results as follows in reverse time order:

  1. But only the gullible & the ill informed believed David Cameron’s idiotic comments about repatriation & renegotiation http://soc.li/qDzi3J
    View summary

  2. REDACTED AS NOT RELEVANT TO THE EASTLEIGH BY-ELECTION

  3. REDACTED AS NOT RELEVANT TO THE EASTLEIGH BY-ELECTION
  4. REDACTED AS NOT RELEVANT TO THE EASTLEIGH BY-ELECTION

  5. @politicalhackuk With schools, Hospitals & much more sold off to Private landlords & Public Finances scammed by Labour sadly borrowing rises
    View conversation

  6. #ukip MEP Godfrey bloom failed to turn up at #eu committee meeting when financial transaction tax passed by one vote! #bbccqt

  7. For kids watching #bbcqt that are too young to remember cash-for-questions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash-for-questions_affair … Hamilton charged £2k per parli. question

  8. @CorshamResident @IssyTweets @NSinclaireMEP Bright as Niel Hamilton may be his lack of integrity & association with sleaze undermine UKIP
    View conversation

  9. @chrisshipitv @DPJHodges I do not agree based on track record. Diane James was new, an Independent & distanced from UKIP sleaze & corruption
    View conversation

  10. @FreebornTrukip @wiffen I appreciate exposing the facts and clear proven truth is rarely popular to those on the make!
    View conversation

  11. @wiffen Clearly UKIP FAILED to get the message of Leave-The-EU across as their message in Eastleigh but acted as dustbin for protest voters.
    View conversation

  12. Tories gagged their EUroSceptic candidate in Eastleigh & no one believes they will deliver a fair Leave-The-EU Referendum losing votes!
    Expand

  13. REDACTED AS NOT RELEVANT TO THE EASTLEIGH BY-ELECTION

  14. @TheEconomist The Tories have failed to explain the desperate need for greater cuts to survive but Moodies made it clear in rating report!
    View conversation

  15. Tory vote v. poor but not wipe out (mid term protest) Labour however was disastrous & extrapolated would loose a GE badly.
    Expand

  16. LibDim winner in Eastleigh with a collapse of 14% of the vote & 17% turnout with 19% swing vote not to Leave-The-EU UKIP but protest dustbin
    Expand

  17. Eastleigh clearly shows Tories failed to convince they will hold a fair referendum & Leave-The-EU & failed to convince they need bigger cuts
    Expand

  18. Eastleigh 52% t/o LibDim 13,342 – UKIP 11,571 – Tory 10,559 – Lab 4,088 thus as I predicted UKIP gained the protest dustbin vote not values
    Expand

  19. UKIP clearly failed to get the message of Leave-The-EU across to the electorate in Eastleigh merely using immigration protest fear tactics!
    Expand

  20. Eastleigh turnout down by 19% as I predicted UKIP miss out on postal vote even as the protest dustbin vote & get very few votes for policies
    Expand

  21. Eastleigh UKIP gain a notable share of protest vote but fail to win based on the postal vote as I predicted. Few votes are for UKIP values!
    Expand

You can by all means CLICK HERE to view my TWITTERS and the relevant time lines.
You may choose to follow me on TWITTER where you will find that you will be advised when I post new >Postings< on various of my blogs as well as >TWEETS< on many subjects of interest to me besides UKIP & other politics in the Leave-The-EU diaspora.

Further to my >TWEETS< you may also be interested in the opinions of Dr. Richard North regarding the Eastleigh by-election – a posting with which I largely agree:

UK politics: a wasteland of democracy

Friday 1 March 2013

Times 001-cle.jpg

The media are glibly talking of the “humiliation” variously of David Cameron (Independent) and the Conservatives (Telegraph), completely unconscious of the fact that the by-election result represented a humiliating defeat for the political class as a whole.

As Your Freedom and Ours points out, people are not turning out to vote for any of the candidates in any numbers. But, when the lead candidate goes to Westminster on the back of 17 percent of the electorate – not even one in five of the voters – that represents a crashing failure of the political class to take the people with them.

But then, when we see Clegg stand alongside the new MP and proclaim “we overcame the odds”, while The Times talks of a “stunning” victory, the nature of the problem becomes apparent.

The great divide then yawns into a chasm when Lib-Dem party president, Tim Farron, claims: “This is a staggering result … it will be a turning point in this parliament and that we are in a position to win this seat completely changes the narrative of the parliament”.

And while the voters delivered a majority of 1,771 for the Lib-Dems, it is interesting to note that aside from the Lib-Lab-Con-UK matrix, there were ten other parties in the field, including the Monster Raving Loony Party, which collectively polled 2,056 votes.

Farage talks glibly about the Conservatives “splitting the UKIP vote”, and also hails UKIP’s “strong showing” as a sign of “revulsion” at the three main parties across Britain. But there were over two thousand voters who thought more of the likes of the Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party than they did of his offer. Those votes were sufficient to deprive his candidate of a seat in Parliament.

What is thus very, very clear from this result is that the politicians simply haven’t got the message – any more than has the media. They are regarded, collectively, with a mixture of indifference and contempt. Party politics and voting in this country have become a minority preoccupation.

The result today, therefore, is not a disaster, per se for Cameron and his Conservatives, as some would have it. It is a disaster for the flawed experiment in representative democracy, another nail in the coffin of a failed system.

As for UKIP, the picture remains muddy. Your Freedom and Ours observes that their plan to become the third party after the Lib-Dims has fallen by the wayside by the latter’s victory in Eastleigh.

They cannot pretend that they are the second party in the country with no MPs and very few councillors. So, despite the undoubted rejoicing in the UKIP ranks and despite the nauseating plaudits that will be heaped on the Dear Leader, the fact remains: after 20 years and in the most propitious circumstances they remain in no-man’s land.

Increasingly though, this is becoming the “no-electors’ land” – a wasteland of democracy. And the politicians can’t even bring themselves to admit it.

COMMENT: “EASTLEIGH” THREAD

Richard North 01/03/2013


 UK politics: Eastleigh by-election

Friday 1 March 2013

BBC 029-eas.jpg

More than usual hyperventilation has attended this by-election, with some pretty bizarre predictions, even by the rather low standards of British political commentary. For what it is worth, my (private) prediction was that the Lib-dims would romp home, the Tories would come a poor second, Labour third and UKIP would keep their deposit with about seven percent of the vote … all on a very low turnout of 40 percent.

 
But then, I was certainly wrong on the turnout, as early reports put the it at 52 percent. This is higher than I expected although low in contrast to the 69.3 percent cast in the 2010 general election. All the same, no one at the beginning of the count was expecting the earlier tosh about UKIP winning to materialise, although there was still some expectation that UKIP might make second place.
 
As always though, the postal votes were set to play a crucial part, with 14,000 issued, and the Lib-Dems expected to take the lion’s share.  Given that most of these votes were in before the latest groping controversy, that vote was expected to be fairly solid.

UKIP had to beat Ray Finch’s 2010 performance, when he took 1,933 votes, taking 3.6 percent of the votes cast, losing his deposit. In the 1997 election, the Referendum Party fronted Victor Eldridge and took 2,013, also coming in with 3.6 percent of the votes. Thirteen years had not delivered any appreciable enhancement in eurosceptic sentiment in Eastleigh.

 
The talk though is of UKIP becoming the reservoir of the protest vote, and in particular capitalising on concerns about immigration. 
 
And, at just after 2.30 am, the result came through. The Lib-Dems did indeed romp home, coming in with 13,342 votes, against the second comer at 11,571 votes – UKIP.  Second place for Farage’s party, nearly a thousand ahead of the Conservatives at 10,599.  Labour trails at 4,088 votes. So much for my powers of prediction.
 
Mike Thornton’s vote of 13,342 votes compares with Chris Huhne’s 24,966 in 2010, yet Thornton talks of a Lib-Dem “mandate”, having dragged in a pitiful 32 percent of the votes cast, and 17 percent of the electorate of 78,313.  UKIP’s great victory amounts to 28 percent of the votes cast, or 14.8 percent of the electorate. 
 
This is a victory of sorts – bald men fighting over a comb, squabbling over a diminishing quantum, where an MP goes to parliament with a “mandate” of 17 percent of the electorate.  It never was democracy.  Now, it isn’t even representative.

COMMENT THREAD

Richard North 01/03/2013

You may also find the facts and opinions of the Junius Team of interest CLICK HERE

Dr. Eric Edmond’s take on the results ar Eastleigh of interest CLICK HERE.

.

Regards,

Greg_L-W..

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