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Posts Tagged ‘John Rentoul’

Did Nigel Farage Bottle it or has he in fact ‘Bottled & sealed UKIP’s history’?

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 01/05/2014

Did Nigel Farage Bottle it or has he in fact ‘Bottled & sealed UKIP’s history’?
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The corruption of EUkip’s leadership,

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is what gives the remaining 10% a bad name!

Did Nigel Farage Bottle it by ducking out of standing in Newark or has he in fact ‘Bottled & sealed UKIP’s history’ and thus it is now all over bar the various inquiries, revelations, bad publicity and shame?

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Nigel Farage has bottled his by-election chance, and Ukip is over

John Rentoul
Wednesday 30 April 2014

After Nigel Farage blew up his rocket on the launch pad at 8.05 this morning, today’s Prime Minister’s Questions became more important and less interesting.

But first let us pay our respects to the late UK Independence Party. It had a good run. There is a bit of fun still to be had. Today we have already had two opinion polls suggesting that it is going to win the largest share of votes in the European Parliament elections on 22 May by some margin. Ukip is nine or 11 points ahead with three weeks still to go, which has the makings of a landslide.

It may seem perverse to suggest, therefore, that the party is over. But I suggest that this is precisely what it is. Done with, finished, a footnote.

By failing to seize the party’s one chance to win a by-election, Farage has blown it. Not that “it” was ever a very good chance. Farage bottled the Newark by-election because he didn’t think he would win it. And if he couldn’t win it, there is no one else in Ukip who could. The best chance of achieving the “breakthrough” that is the holy grail for protest parties, which in this case would mean a handful of MPs at the next general election, would have been to establish the credibility of a bridgehead in the House of Commons before the general election.

I think we can now take it that Ukip will win one MP at the next election at most. That one MP might be Farage, standing in a Kent seat such as Folkestone, where he has connections, members and organisation. He would then be the Caroline Lucas of the next parliament and Ukip would fade away, apart from its large numbers of troublesome MEPs in the European Parliament.

The thing is that Ukip faces a challenge to its reason for existing after the next general election, whatever the result. If Cameron wins, he is committed to a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU in 2017, after which Ukip would have little purpose. If Ed Miliband wins, the Conservative Party in opposition is likely to become several degrees more Eurosceptic. Boris Johnson only this week restated his view that, if Cameron could not secure better terms of EU membership, he would vote to leave. Again, the need for a separate anti-EU party will be greatly diminished. And if the Liberal Democrats, through some tragic accident of the arithmetic, should find themselves out of government, there would not even be the need for a separate protest party any more.

So that is it, I think. There will be a lot of fizz, smoke and carousel music, but in three weeks’ time the Great Ukip Flying Circus will be in decline. Big social trends are against it. The economy is looking up, and people mind less about free movement of workers when they feel better off. Scepticism about the EU has ebbed. YouGov now consistently finds that, even if there were a referendum now on existing terms of membership, people would vote to stay in.

Which left us with Prime Minister’s Questions. Back to politics as usual. The Ukip-free House of Commons debated the sale of the Royal Mail. Miliband complained about “a rip-off of taxpayers”. Cameron responded with a history lesson, quoting Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock on 1980s privatisations.

Miliband had a good argument and an effective debating point, quoting Brian Binley, the Tory chairman of the Business select committee, who had described the way the sell-off was managed as “unethical” and who was nodding in agreement on the back-benches behind Cameron’s blind spot.

Cameron had a reasonable argument – Labour had tried to sell the Royal Mail and this government had succeeded – and an effective diversionary tactic, pointing out that Miliband dared not mention the economy, jobs or the deficit, because they were all coming good.

The Prime Minister could not say what he really thought, which was that Vince Cable might have been taken for a fast one by some of those spivs in the City, but that the risks of failing to unload the shares onto the market were worse than those of seeing them snapped up and a rise in price, showing an instant profit.

But those are the sort of calculations that government politics are all about, the sort of thing that Ukip would like to wish away. Returning to real politics will be duller, but more important.

To view the original article with a less amusing picture CLICK HERE

Personally I believe John Rentoul has managed to get this largely wrong and it may just be one of the politically astute actions Nigel Farage has ever made as it seems likely he would have failed to get elect5ed in Newsrk and that would very certainly have been the end of UKIP as if they failed to get their ONLY known personality elected after what can be expected to be an excellent result in the EU elections based on UKIP being used as a protest vote against the recognised political elite who the electorate perceive, not entirely inaccurately, to have betrayed Britain and our peoples.

One reason it could be expected that Nigel Farage would fail to be elected in Newark is that IF he had taken on the challenge it is almost certain that the Tories would have fielded Boris Johnson in as their candidate

The danger for UKIP now is that whenever and wherever Farage tries to get a seat in Westminster the Tories will field their biggest hitter against him and being something of a one man band elected as the public’s protest vote serial failure to make progress in domestic politics, as over the last 21 years will, in my opinion, show the unprofessional incompetence of UKIP under Nigel Farage’s control despite the fact that he is very much a member of that political elite t

against whom the electorate are using their vote to protest.

The electorate are in many ways more savvy than the political hacks in their Westminster bubble!

The less generous are also to be heard pointing out that Westminster offers far less opportunities for self enrichment at the tax payers’ expense and less anonimity in prolonged and frequent periods away from home!

Farage & UKIP must grow up and accept that there are absolutely zero so called efforts to ‘smear’ UKIP beyond the style of insult and smeart that Farage has handed out against his political opponents for many years it is merely as I have warned year in year out that as Farage gained prominence he would become subject to greater scruting and no carpet would be concealing enough to hide all that had been swept under it be that mistresses, abuse of tax payers’ money, corruption, bullying, racism, anti homosexuality, anti Islamism all caps that would appear to fit accurately –

or more simply:

‘The higher up the tree the monkey climbs the more you see its Rse’!

Regards,

Greg_L-W..

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INDEPENDENT Leave-the-EU Alliance

Work With THE MIDNIGHT GROUP to

Reclaim YOUR Future

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Posted by: Greg Lance-Watkins

tel: 01594 – 528 337

of: Greg_L-W@BTconnect.com

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Posted in Newark by-election, Nigel FARAGE, UKIP | Tagged: GL-W, Greg Lance-Watkins, Greg_L-W, John Rentoul, Newark By-election, Nigel Farage, UKIP, UKIP Protest Vote | Leave a Comment »

UKIP Confirmed as More A Dustbin for Protest Votes

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 22/12/2013

UKIP Confirmed as More A Dustbin for Protest Votes
.

Please Be Sure To .. Re-TWEET my Twitterings

& Publicise My Blogs

To Spread The Facts World Wide

OUR-ENEMY-WITHIN

To Leave-The-EU

Clean EUkip up NOW make UKIP electable!

The corruption of EUkip’s leadership,

their anti UKIP claque in POWER & the NEC

is what gives the remaining 10% a bad name!

UKIP Defined as being only The Farage Cult & many marginalised members and Confirmed as More A Dustbin for Protest Votes, than any real General Election thret!

Notable that the meeeja accepts they have misread the runes of the polls!

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Allow me to introduce you to the Four-Square Rule. The Conservatives need to be four points ahead of Labour in share of the vote if they are to remain the largest party in the House of Commons. A four-point Tory lead is therefore where the parties are “all square”. It is the break-even point between the Tories having the most seats, in which case David Cameron stays on as Prime Minister, and Labour overtaking them, in which case Ed Miliband moves in.

As the year ends, the Tories are on average five points behind in the opinion polls. That should not be too discouraging for Cameron. To go from five points behind to four points ahead seems a less than Herculean task, especially if voters start to feel better off next year, which seems likely.

Except that there is a bluebottle in the ointment – Nigel Farage. Number 10 was spooked last week by a full-page advertisement in The Daily Telegraph taken out by Alan Bown, a UK Independence Party donor, who has paid for polls in eight target seats. The polls were scary for numerate Conservatives, suggesting that the Labour vote was up by more in Conservative-Labour marginals than in national polls; that the Tory vote was down further than would be expected; and that Ukip was doing better than expected. In some places, this would hand Tory seats to Labour, with Ukip pushing the Tory candidate into third place.

Certainly, the Conservatives should take Ukip seriously. Lots of people want to vote Ukip, and for reasons which are not as unrespectable as is often pretended. Many of the party’s policies are nonsense, as anyone who has tried to reconcile its spending promises with its plans to cut taxes and borrowing can attest. But the impulse behind them is widely shared. Ukip is more than a conservative party, it is a party of reaction. It wants to go back to before 1971, when the UK Parliament could decide who was allowed to live in this country, when there were grammar schools (and secondary moderns) everywhere and marriage was heterosexual.

Farage is a brilliant leader of this popular emotion. Like Alex Salmond and George Galloway he is a separatist, adept at promising to separate people from reality. Like them, he is poorly understood by Westminster journalists, which is why we anticipated the SNP victory in Scotland in 2011 so poorly and Galloway’s win in the Bradford West by-election not at all. The European Parliament elections next year will give Ukip a good platform. “Half of the Tory tribe goes off and supports Ukip,” says a senior, gloomy Conservative. They treat European elections “like a weekend retreat”.

It will test the Prime Minister’s nerve, but there is a limit to populism. I hope that the Scottish people will show in September that an anti-London vote is one thing, independence quite another. Galloway cannot get himself elected in the same seat twice. And a year after Ukip won 17 per cent of the vote in the European Parliament elections in 2009, it secured 3 per cent in the general election. Ukip has money and members but not much time to build an organisation capable of electing MPs.

Then Farage comes up against another limit. The more successful Ukip is, the harder it is for him to maintain the anti-politics pose. His dinner with Rupert Murdoch in March made him look like just another politician; and it is notable that he rarely mentions same-sex marriage, although it really animates his new recruits.

His reluctance is part of his desire to keep his party away from some of the fruitier cakes of the better yesterday brigade, such as Godfrey Bloom, the former Ukip MEP who yesterday accused Farage of having done a deal with the Tories to stand aside in some seats in return for a peerage. (As if: the party would lynch him.)

However, Ukip is still a problem for the Conservatives. Bown’s polls confirm that Ukip has taken twice as many voters from the Tories as from Labour. But Labour is unlikely to win Thanet South as the result of a Ukip surge. If Farage stood, he could affect the result in one seat, but polls in individual constituencies have a poor record of predicting general elections, especially this far in advance.

National opinion polls are a better guide. In them, Ukip’s support currently averages 12 per cent – a long way from “breakthough”. And if Ukip does not break through, the only thing that matters is whether it takes more votes from the Tories than from Labour. The crucial point is that the damage Ukip has done to the Tories has already been done, and the Tories are only five points behind Labour. The question is whether Ukip will win over even more Tory voters rather than Labour ones between now and the election. I don’t think so.

Certainly, by the end of last week, Cameron’s advisers had calmed down about those Ukip polls, saying that they “hadn’t changed the price of fish very much”. They have to say that, of course, but I think they are broadly right. The success of Ukip makes it a harder for Cameron to get four points ahead of Labour, as required by the Four-Square Rule, but that is still an achievable target.

To view the original post CLICK HERE

Or to put it more succinctly Farage and his cult of followers can be expected to do quite well in the EU elections but there is no reason to consider them in either the General Election of 2015 or the 2015 Local Elections.Consider the last EU election where they could claim 17% but the catastrophic collapse in the subsequent General Election where they gained an insignificant % and were nowhere near winning a single seat & where in the Local Elections out of almost 2,000 Local Seats up for election they were elected in less than 150.

Since which date a number of those who were elected have departed whether fired by the party for seemingly being a challenge to Farage or due to racist style foot in mouth blunders. Also let us not forget Farage has lost over 1/3rd. of his MEPs who have either quit his clique in disgust or defected to the Tories!

Then Farage has the further humiliation of the results of the 2013 by elections where out of 337 seats up for election UKIP were elected to a risible 15!

As we have stated again and again Farage and his lack of credible gravitas, rational policies or understanding of either the word Libertarian or the EU’s insignificance; as merely a rubber stamping office for global Governance, WTO, CODEX, UN etc.; have all reduced his party to being little more than the clown party, acting as a dustbin for protest votes, and now for that matter the dustbin for failed Tories and ex members of the BNP now that the BNP has collapsed.
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Regards,

Greg_L-W..

~~~~~~~~~~#########~~~~~~~~~~

INDEPENDENT Leave-the-EU Alliance

Work With THE MIDNIGHT GROUP to

Reclaim YOUR Future

GET YOUR COUNTRY BACK

Deny the self serving political clique ANY Democratic claims to legitimacy

Write Upon Your Ballot Paper at EVERY election:

LEAVE-THE-EU

to Reclaim YOUR Future

GET YOUR COUNTRY BACK

Posted by: Greg Lance-Watkins

tel: 01594 – 528 337

of: Greg_L-W@BTconnect.com

Accuracy & Copyright Statement: CLICK HERE

Summary, archive, facts & comments on UKIP: http://UKIP-vs-EUkip.com

DO MAKE USE of LINKS & >Right Side Bar< & The Top Bar >PAGES<
Also:

Details & Links: http://GregLanceWatkins.Blogspot.com

UKIP Its ASSOCIATES & DETAILS: CLICK HERE
Views I almost Totally Share: CLICK HERE
General Stuff archive: http://gl-w.blogspot.com