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Did Nigel Farage Bottle it or has he in fact ‘Bottled & sealed UKIP’s history’?

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 01/05/2014

Did Nigel Farage Bottle it or has he in fact ‘Bottled & sealed UKIP’s history’?
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Did Nigel Farage Bottle it by ducking out of standing in Newark or has he in fact ‘Bottled & sealed UKIP’s history’ and thus it is now all over bar the various inquiries, revelations, bad publicity and shame?

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Nigel Farage has bottled his by-election chance, and Ukip is over

John Rentoul
Wednesday 30 April 2014
FARAGE, Nigel 85 BILLBOARD 01
After Nigel Farage blew up his rocket on the launch pad at 8.05 this morning, today’s Prime Minister’s Questions became more important and less interesting.
But first let us pay our respects to the late UK Independence Party. It had a good run. There is a bit of fun still to be had. Today we have already had two opinion polls suggesting that it is going to win the largest share of votes in the European Parliament elections on 22 May by some margin. Ukip is nine or 11 points ahead with three weeks still to go, which has the makings of a landslide.
It may seem perverse to suggest, therefore, that the party is over. But I suggest that this is precisely what it is. Done with, finished, a footnote.
By failing to seize the party’s one chance to win a by-election, Farage has blown it. Not that “it” was ever a very good chance. Farage bottled the Newark by-election because he didn’t think he would win it. And if he couldn’t win it, there is no one else in Ukip who could. The best chance of achieving the “breakthrough” that is the holy grail for protest parties, which in this case would mean a handful of MPs at the next general election, would have been to establish the credibility of a bridgehead in the House of Commons before the general election.
I think we can now take it that Ukip will win one MP at the next election at most. That one MP might be Farage, standing in a Kent seat such as Folkestone, where he has connections, members and organisation. He would then be the Caroline Lucas of the next parliament and Ukip would fade away, apart from its large numbers of troublesome MEPs in the European Parliament.
The thing is that Ukip faces a challenge to its reason for existing after the next general election, whatever the result. If Cameron wins, he is committed to a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU in 2017, after which Ukip would have little purpose. If Ed Miliband wins, the Conservative Party in opposition is likely to become several degrees more Eurosceptic. Boris Johnson only this week restated his view that, if Cameron could not secure better terms of EU membership, he would vote to leave. Again, the need for a separate anti-EU party will be greatly diminished. And if the Liberal Democrats, through some tragic accident of the arithmetic, should find themselves out of government, there would not even be the need for a separate protest party any more.
So that is it, I think. There will be a lot of fizz, smoke and carousel music, but in three weeks’ time the Great Ukip Flying Circus will be in decline. Big social trends are against it. The economy is looking up, and people mind less about free movement of workers when they feel better off. Scepticism about the EU has ebbed. YouGov now consistently finds that, even if there were a referendum now on existing terms of membership, people would vote to stay in.
Which left us with Prime Minister’s Questions. Back to politics as usual. The Ukip-free House of Commons debated the sale of the Royal Mail. Miliband complained about “a rip-off of taxpayers”. Cameron responded with a history lesson, quoting Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock on 1980s privatisations.
Miliband had a good argument and an effective debating point, quoting Brian Binley, the Tory chairman of the Business select committee, who had described the way the sell-off was managed as “unethical” and who was nodding in agreement on the back-benches behind Cameron’s blind spot.
Cameron had a reasonable argument – Labour had tried to sell the Royal Mail and this government had succeeded – and an effective diversionary tactic, pointing out that Miliband dared not mention the economy, jobs or the deficit, because they were all coming good.
The Prime Minister could not say what he really thought, which was that Vince Cable might have been taken for a fast one by some of those spivs in the City, but that the risks of failing to unload the shares onto the market were worse than those of seeing them snapped up and a rise in price, showing an instant profit.
But those are the sort of calculations that government politics are all about, the sort of thing that Ukip would like to wish away. Returning to real politics will be duller, but more important.
To view the original article with a less amusing picture CLICK HERE
Personally I believe John Rentoul has managed to get this largely wrong and it may just be one of the politically astute actions Nigel Farage has ever made as it seems likely he would have failed to get elect5ed in Newsrk and that would very certainly have been the end of UKIP as if they failed to get their ONLY known personality elected after what can be expected to be an excellent result in the EU elections based on UKIP being used as a protest vote against the recognised political elite who the electorate perceive, not entirely inaccurately, to have betrayed Britain and our peoples.
One reason it could be expected that Nigel Farage would fail to be elected in Newark is that IF he had taken on the challenge it is almost certain that the Tories would have fielded Boris Johnson in as their candidate
The danger for UKIP now is that whenever and wherever Farage tries to get a seat in Westminster the Tories will field their biggest hitter against him and being something of a one man band elected as the public’s protest vote serial failure to make progress in domestic politics, as over the last 21 years will, in my opinion, show the unprofessional incompetence of UKIP under Nigel Farage’s control despite the fact that he is very much a member of that political elite t
against whom the electorate are using  their vote to protest.
The electorate are in many ways more savvy than the political hacks in their Westminster bubble!
The less generous are also to be heard pointing out that Westminster offers far less opportunities for self enrichment at the tax payers’ expense and less anonimity in prolonged and frequent periods away from home!
Farage & UKIP must grow up and accept that there are absolutely zero so called efforts to ‘smear’ UKIP beyond the style of insult and smeart that Farage has handed out against his political opponents for many years it is merely as I have warned year in year out that as Farage gained prominence he would become subject to greater scruting and no carpet would be concealing enough to hide all that had been swept under it be that mistresses, abuse of tax payers’ money, corruption, bullying, racism, anti homosexuality, anti Islamism all caps that would appear to fit accurately –
or more simply:
‘The higher up the tree the monkey climbs the more you see its Rse’!
.

Regards,

Greg_L-W..

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Posted by: Greg Lance-Watkins

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